As the economic crisis continues, the EUR/USD rate might fall on its own. This is especially the case with currencies trading in Asia and Europe, as this region is a major buyer of European exports.
The biggest trade for the EUR/USD in recent months has been between the Japanese Yen and the Euro. The Japanese Yen soared to new highs and then went into decline as the Euro was also going into decline.
The second most traded currency pair in recent months has been the Euro/USD. This was in contrast to the Japanese Yen, which was flat for much of the period.
The third most traded pair was the Euro/Japanese Yen pair. It is worth noting that the Dutch, British and French Francs all had strong rallies during the period and were then all headed down.
The largest trading day for the EUR/USD was the EUR/JPY rally. This trade took place on March 17th and was part of a two week strong rally.
Since the beginning of the year, the trading pattern has been clear and the weakness has been evident in the recent months. Indeed, the euro has dropped sharply but it has not yet fallen below 75 cents.
Another reason for the strength is that this has been a solid trade when compared to many other trades in recent months. The EUR/USD trade has been the strongest since January.
A strong trade has been maintained since the beginning of January, when the trade was flat for the first eight days. In fact, the entire period up to March 23rd has been very strong with positive territory being broken by the pattern in mid February.
All of this is quite good news for traders because it looks like the strong trade is holding strong. The weakness was evident on the day following the GFC where the EUR/USD trade rose sharply against the US Dollar but then fell back towards the pattern from the beginning of March onwards.
The pattern from January has now been broken at least four times and there is every possibility that this trade will hold until the end of April. The weak trade is very likely to be maintained for the next three months at least.